Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian were declared dead following a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border. The crash, which occurred on Sunday night, led to an emergency landing in a forested area due to bad weather and fog. This incident raises concerns about Iran’s aviation safety and the implications for its political landscape.

Drone footage of the wreckage, captured by the Red Crescent and aired on state media FARS News Agency, showed the crash site on a steep, wooded hillside. The remains of the helicopter were minimal, with only a blue and white tail visible. The helicopter was part of a convoy traveling in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province, with a hard landing reported near Jolfa, 600 km northwest of Tehran.

A Turkish drone identified a heat source suspected to be the helicopter’s wreckage and shared the coordinates with Iranian authorities. President Raisi was in a US-made Bell 212 helicopter, which had to make an emergency landing due to adverse weather conditions. This model, made in the US, has not been sold to Iran since the 1979 revolution, with the most recent crash of this type occurring in September 2023 off the coast of the UAE.

The Bell 212 helicopter can carry 15 people, including the crew, and is adaptable for various purposes. CNN’s military analyst Cedric Leighton suggested that the difficulty in obtaining spare parts for the helicopter might have contributed to the crash. The helicopter lost contact approximately 30 minutes into the flight, triggering a massive search and rescue operation.

Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy Mehdi Safari claimed he managed to speak with Raisi via phone from the downed helicopter. At least 73 rescue teams, including army, Revolutionary Guard forces, and police units, are searching the crash area near the village of Tavil in East Azerbaijan province. There is no evidence suggesting Israel’s involvement in the crash, and Israeli officials have not commented on the incident.

Iran’s aviation sector has a poor safety record, with nearly 2,000 fatalities in plane crashes since 1979. US sanctions have hampered Iran’s ability to buy new aircraft or obtain parts, forcing airlines to strip some planes for parts. The Aviation Safety Network recorded 22 fatal air accidents in Iran since 2000, highlighting the severe challenges faced by the country’s aviation industry.

Raisi was seen as a potential successor to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian Constitution mandates the appointment of the vice-president in case of the president’s death. Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber, 68, is next in line and will organize a new presidential election within 50 days. Mokhber, like Raisi, is close to Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Raisi’s death comes amidst Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks on Israel and its support for Hezbollah in the Lebanon border conflict. Hamas expressed solidarity with Iran following Raisi’s death. Yemen’s Houthi rebels, another Iranian ally, have targeted international shipping, portraying it as a blockade of Israel.

Iran has emerged as a key ally of Russia, supplying drones that have caused significant damage in Ukraine. Israel, widely believed to be the only nuclear-armed power in the Middle East, has not acknowledged possessing such weapons. This incident underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics in the region and the potential ramifications for Iran’s internal and external policies.

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