Germany's Fiscal Crisis: Looming Threat to Europe's 2024 Growth

In a decisive move that echoes the end of Europe’s era of massive stimulus, Germany, the continent’s largest economy, has abruptly applied the brakes to government spending. Triggered by a ruling from Germany’s top court, political leaders are in crisis mode, reassessing their budget for the year and rethinking their strategy for public finances.

The legal predicament revolves around the use of special funds, not part of the federal budget, to support large-scale investments. Germany’s “debt brake,” constitutionally limiting government deficits and borrowing, led governments to resort to off-budget funds. However, a ruling in Karlsruhe on Nov. 15 disabled one such fund, raising doubts about the financing of hundreds of billions of euros and challenging Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition’s plan for a climate-friendly economy.

Germany’s Off-Budget Funds

Sources: German Finance Ministry, Federal Court of Audit

This crisis unfolds as European Union fiscal rules, promoting prudent public finances, are set to resume next year. Italy and France, with deficits above the 3% limit, face scrutiny. Germany, planning prolonged energy support, grapples with uncertainty as its government navigates the legal intricacies. Regardless of the outcome, new spending commitments will require substantial political effort.

The country’s budget quandary mirrors a broader fiscal shift in the region. As Europe’s stimulus era winds down, Germany’s judges seem to have extinguished the remaining lights. To read the full Businessweek story, click here.

The Best of Bloomberg Economics

Two Fed officials advocating higher interest rates signal a potential steadying, and billionaire investor Bill Ackman suggests cuts may start sooner than markets predict. Economic hard landing fears and aggressive Fed easing spread across US interest-rate markets. New Zealand’s central bank takes a hawkish stance on interest rates, while the Bank of Japan emphasizes the need for continued monetary easing.

Need-to-Know Research

JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists note a trend shift in US and Chinese household spending during the pandemic. US retail sales follow China’s pre-Covid trend, and China’s sales mimic the US pre-Covid trend. Looking ahead, JPMorgan anticipates consumption as the main driver of economic growth in 2024, with a 6% real gain in spending, despite limited help from policymakers.

#germany #europeaneconomy #fiscalpolicy #legalchallenge #stimulus #businessnews #economicgrowth #europeanunion #budgetcrisis #judicialruling #financialstrategies #globalmarkets #economicforecast #jpmorgan #consumptiontrends #economicresearch #bloombergeconomics