India’s journey towards becoming a $4 trillion economy has stirred up a buzz on social media, but economists suggest that the milestone might be on the horizon, possibly by the fiscal year 2024-25. The Union Budget for 2023-24 projects India’s nominal GDP to reach approximately Rs 301.75 lakh crore, indicating a growth rate of 10.5% from the estimated Rs 272.41 lakh crore in the previous fiscal year. In terms of US dollars, this projection equates to a GDP of $3.63 trillion for the current fiscal year.

Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, expressed skepticism about achieving a $4 trillion economy in the current scenario. He noted that reaching this milestone would require a nominal GDP of about Rs 330 lakh crore, which might be attainable with a 10% growth in the fiscal year 2024-25.

The buzz around India’s economy soared on Sunday when screenshots circulated on social media, indicating that India’s GDP had surpassed $4 trillion. While this prompted enthusiasm about India potentially becoming the third-largest global economy, there was no official confirmation or denial of this information. Official GDP estimates in India are released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, following a scheduled calendar. These estimates serve as the basis for various agencies, including international ones.

The first advance estimates of GDP for the fiscal year 2023-24, including projections of nominal GDP growth, are anticipated to be available in early January. This will precede the Interim Budget 2024-25, with subsequent estimates released in February and May.

Economists and experts have raised concerns about the data circulating on social media, emphasizing the importance of relying on official projections. Rahul Bajoria, MD & Head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics at Barclays, cautioned against relying on real-time predictions, stating that India won’t hit $4 trillion until late 2024 or early 2025. Deepak Shenoy, Founder and CEO of Capitalmind, concurred, indicating that India’s GDP hasn’t yet reached $4 trillion, estimating it to be around $3.45 trillion at best.

While the discussions on India’s economic trajectory generate excitement, experts emphasize the need for prudence and reliance on official data. The upcoming official GDP estimates for the second quarter of the fiscal year are eagerly awaited, promising a clearer picture of India’s economic standing by the end of the month.