MIND VOICE NEWS: Sudan Conflict: Understanding the Power Struggle and its Implications
Key points:
1. Clashes between Sudan’s military and the main paramilitary force have left at least 56 people dead.
2. The fighting has caused a power struggle between the two factions of Sudan’s military regime.
3. The Sudanese armed forces follow Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) follow former warlord Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
4. The RSF was founded by former dictator Omar al-Bashir to crush a rebellion in Darfur.
5. The power struggle has its roots in the years before a 2019 uprising that ousted Bashir, who deliberately set his security forces against one another.
6. An effort to transition to a democratic civilian-led government faltered after Bashir’s fall.
7. The civilian demand for oversight of the military and integration of the RSF into the regular armed forces is a central cause of tension since the uprising.
8. Civilians have also called for the handover of lucrative military holdings in agriculture, trade, and other industries.
9. Major geopolitical dimensions are at play, with regional powers battling for influence in Sudan.
10. Sudan’s strategic location and agricultural wealth have attracted regional power plays, complicating the chances of a successful transition to civilian-led government.
The recent outbreak of violence in Sudan has left at least 56 dead and threatens to destabilize the country and the wider region. The clashes are the result of an ongoing power struggle between the military and paramilitary forces. The military is broadly loyal to Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are loyal to Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. The power struggle has its roots in the years before the 2019 uprising that ousted the dictator Omar al-Bashir.
The RSF, a collection of militia that were previously known as the Janjaweed, were founded by Bashir to crush a rebellion in Darfur that began over 20 years ago due to the political and economic marginalization of the local people by Sudan’s central government. The RSF have been associated with widespread atrocities. Bashir transformed the Janjaweed into a semi-organized paramilitary force in 2013, giving their leaders military ranks before deploying them to crush a rebellion in South Darfur and then dispatching many to fight in the war in Yemen and later Libya.
The RSF and the regular military forces under Burhan cooperated to oust Bashir in 2019, but a power-sharing deal with the civilians who led the protests against Bashir, which was supposed to bring about a transition towards a democratic government, was interrupted by a coup in October 2021. The coup put the army back in charge, but it faced weekly protests, renewed isolation, and deepening economic woes. Hemedti swung behind the plan for a new transition, bringing tensions with Burhan to the surface.
A central cause of tension since the uprising is the civilian demand for oversight of the military and integration of the RSF into the regular armed forces. Civilians have also called for the handover of lucrative military holdings in agriculture, trade, and other industries, a crucial source of power for an army that has often outsourced military action to regional militias. Another point of contention is the pursuit of justice over allegations of war crimes by the military and its allies in the conflict in Darfur from 2003. The international criminal court is seeking trials for Bashir and other Sudanese suspects.
Justice is also being sought over the killings of pro-democracy protesters in June 2019, in which military forces are implicated. Activists and civilian groups have been angered by delays to an official investigation. In addition, they want justice for at least 125 people killed by security forces in protests since the 2021 coup. The pursuit of justice over war crimes and human rights abuses is essential for building a sustainable and peaceful future in Sudan.
Sudan is in a volatile region bordering the Red Sea, the Sahel region, and the Horn of Africa. Its strategic location and agricultural wealth have attracted regional power plays, complicating the chances of a successful transition to civilian-led government. Several of Sudan’s neighbors, including Ethiopia, Chad, and South Sudan, have been affected by political upheavals and conflict, and Sudan’s relationship with Ethiopia, in particular, has been strained over issues including disputed farmland along their border.
Major geopolitical dimensions are also at play, with Russia, the US, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other powers battling for influence in Sudan. The Saudis and the UAE have seen Sudan’s transition as an opportunity to push back against Islamist influence in the region. They, along with the US and Britain, form the “Quad,” which has sponsored mediation in Sudan along with the UN and the African Union. Western powers fear the potential for a Russian base on the Red Sea, which Sudanese military leaders have expressed openness to.
The conflict in Sudan is complex and multifaceted, with a history of violence and the instability in Sudan could also have consequences for regional security, particularly as Sudan shares borders with several countries that have experienced conflict in recent years. The Darfur conflict has spilled over into Chad and the Central African Republic, while the ongoing conflict in South Sudan has resulted in a large number of refugees fleeing into Sudan. Any escalation of violence in Sudan could have a destabilizing effect on the entire region.
In addition, Sudan’s location on the Red Sea and its potential as a transit hub for international trade has made it a focus of strategic interest for several world powers. The country’s economic potential, including its natural resources and agricultural land, has also attracted foreign investment, with China being one of the largest investors in Sudan.
However, the ongoing conflict and instability in Sudan may undermine foreign investment and cause further economic hardship for the Sudanese people, who have already suffered from decades of economic mismanagement and corruption under Bashir’s regime. The situation in Sudan is complex and has deep roots in the country’s history and politics. The power struggle between the military factions and the paramilitary forces highlights the challenges of transitioning to a democratic government after decades of authoritarian rule. The demands of the civilian population for greater oversight and accountability of the military and paramilitary forces, as well as the pursuit of justice for past atrocities, add to the complexity of the situation.
The instability in Sudan also has regional and international dimensions, with several world powers vying for influence and control in the country. The potential for regional destabilization and economic hardship for the Sudanese people further underscore the importance of finding a peaceful and sustainable solution to the conflict.
In conclusion, the conflict in Sudan is a result of a power struggle between military factions and paramilitary forces, which has its roots in the country’s history and politics. The demands of the civilian population for greater oversight and accountability of the military and paramilitary forces, as well as the pursuit of justice for past atrocities, add to the complexity of the situation.
The instability in Sudan also has regional and international dimensions, with several world powers vying for influence and control in the country. The potential for regional destabilization and economic hardship for the Sudanese people underscores the importance of finding a peaceful and sustainable solution to the conflict.(Mind Voice News)
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