India has surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country with 1.4286 billion people, according to the United Nations world population dashboard. China’s population stands at 1.4257 billion, reflecting a shift in the global balance of power. India’s population has grown by more than one billion people since 1950, when the UN began gathering population data, according to the Pew Research Centre.
Last year, China’s population shrank for the first time since 1960, as the country ended its strict one-child policy, which was imposed in the 1980s amid overpopulation fears. Beijing began allowing couples to have three children in 2021. However, it faces a looming demographic decline as birth rates plummet and its workforce ages.
The global population is projected to reach 8.045 billion by mid-2023, according to UN data. Africa is also experiencing a population surge, with estimates that the continent will see its population spike from 1.4 billion to 3.9 billion by 2100. Conversely, eight countries with populations exceeding 10 million inhabitants, mostly in Europe, experienced a decrease in their populations over the past decade. Japan, due to its ageing population, lost over three million inhabitants between 2011 and 2021.
Factors influencing population growth include fertility rates, increasing longevity, and international migration. According to the United Nations, future population growth depends heavily on fertility rates. The World Population Prospects (2022) predicts that global fertility will decrease from 2.3 children per woman in 2021 to 2.1 in 2050. Despite this, significant gains in life expectancy have been achieved globally in recent years, with life expectancy at birth expected to increase from 72.8 years in 2019 to 77.2 years in 2050. International migration, while a smaller component of population change than births or deaths, can have a significant impact on population size in some countries or areas. Between 2010 and 2021, 17 countries or areas will experience a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while ten countries will see a net outflow of a similar magnitude.
The world’s population is only expected to decline in the 2090s, after reaching a peak of 10.4 billion, according to the UN’s projections. The population trend in India, Africa, and other regions underscores the need for policy interventions to balance demographic shifts and ensure that adequate resources are available to support a growing population.
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